A fresh round of tariffs by U.S. president Donald Trump and lack of short term catalysts is inciting caution from market watchers, who believe Ethereum’s ether (ETH) may be particularly affected.
Trump on Sunday said he will introduce 25% tariffs on all steel and aluminium imports into the US, on top of existing duties, with reciprocal tariffs later in the week applicable to all countries.
The rhetoric and spike in inflation expectations could breed downside volatility with a key indicator that foresaged a move above $100,000 for bitcoin, when it traded under $70,000, turning bearish on Sunday.
Crypto majors remained little-changed in European afternoon hours Monday, with U.S. futures Dow and S&P 500 up 0.46% ahead of the New York open. Bitcoin, ether, XRP, Solana’s SOL and dogecoin (DOGE) were up under 1% in the past 24 hours, while BNB Chain’s BNB lost 4.5% after a Sunday rally.
Tariffs introduce economic uncertainty by potentially escalating trade wars, which can lead to market volatility — such events tend to impact bitcoin and the broader crypto market as investors tend to move away from risk assets to safer investments.
Some traders say ether could be further impacted as sentiment for crypto fades down, adding to an already tumultuous year for the asset which saw a widely-watched bitcoin-ether ratio drop to 2021, indicative of a fallout for ETH and preference for BTC.
A drop in ETH may further spell bad news for related beta bets such as memecoin dogecoin (DOGE) and Ethereum-based DeFi tokens, which tend to mirror the movements of the parent asset.
“The rise of BTC vs everything else is the most evident in comparison with ETH, which is seeing record short-interest and FUD with the 2nd largest token being down -23% YTD vs a +2.5% gain in BTC,” Augustine Fan, head of insights at SignalPlus, told CoinDesk in a Telegram message.
“At the risk of sounding like a broken record, but a lack of L1 catalysts and narrative leadership will likely continue to weigh on Ethereum in the foreseeable future,” Fan added.
“Ethereum has been hit particularly hard as ETH reversed its entire pump from late November last year, unwinding any gains to holders,” shared Nick Ruck, director at LVRG Research, in a Telegram message. Due to expectations of increased inflation, investors are betting on only one interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve this year, casting a grim outlook for risk assets including crypto.”
Meanwhile, traders at Singapore-based QCP Capital expect crypto markets to flip-flop in the coming weeks as Trump’s words continue to impact markets.
“A feedback loop is emerging—President Trump, highly sensitive to market reactions, is facing a market increasingly calling his bluff. This could embolden him further, adding another layer of volatility,” the firm said in a Monday broadcast message.
“BTC volatility now skews in favor of puts until April, reflecting a lack of upside catalysts,” it ended.
